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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following making statements of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, Trump eventually introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

This plan would effectively favor Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in peril. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the president. However, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a damaged region of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although keeping in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that are a key impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a open path to the capital in case he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make future fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, the initiative imposes no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Any Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars include vague to troubling. The plan would not just prevent the nation alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his diminished forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Response

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not