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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.