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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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