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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.